Would a US recession be good for global markets?

In May, Canaccord Wealth welcomed back our US-based Chief Market Strategist, Tony Dwyer, as he embarked upon a week-long tour of the UK and Crown Dependencies. Starting in the Isle of Man, Tony then headed to London, before visiting our offices in Guernsey and Jersey. 

Throughout the tour, Tony delivered a series of presentations offering his invaluable insight into the current financial markets, in the face of increasing speculation and uncertainty surrounding a potential global recession. Despite the doom and gloom that typically underpins recession narrative, Tony proposed a much more positive outlook, suggesting that “bad news is good news”.

In case you missed him in person, here are Tony’s five key takeaways for investors in these turbulent times:

1. Leading indicators of US economic activity are pointing towards a recession. Inflation rates, coupled with the actions of the US Federal Reserve (Fed) are indicating a likely recession in the US – which would have much wider implications on global markets.
2. Despite many hoping for a ‘soft landing’, a recession is necessary for a market reset. A recession would lower inflation and drop interest rates; it would catalyse a market drawdown, a decline in inflation and a pullback in interest rates, making things more affordable again. Contrary to popular opinion, a soft-landing benefits no one, and, in order to get to better economic standings, we must first go through a reset. Bad news, which in this case is a recession, is actually good news for the long term.
3. Short-term pain will be followed by opportunities. Despite the natural temptation to sell at times like this, the pain of the last six to twelve months is already priced in. Holding on may prove beneficial in the long run.
4. Small and mid-cap markets may reap some long-overdue benefits. Many of the opportunities are expected in small and mid-cap markets, where this recent pain has been felt most acutely.
5. The impact of artificial intelligence (AI) cannot be underestimated. Looking further forward and to future economic projections, there will be an increased focus on the impact of AI on the global economy. More specifically, there is a growing interest in how AI will affect productivity in the markets; something which is yet to be quantified.

Overall, Tony provided a more positive view of the current global economic situation than many contemporary market commentators, and one that aligns with the latest Investment Outlook from our Chief Investment Office.

It was great to see Tony on this side of the Atlantic, and we look forward to hosting him – and hearing more of his market opinions – in the near future.